Bad Models Yield Bad Predictions

And this is about the model that has been used to predict the spread of COVID-19. Imperial College model Britain used to justify lockdown a ‘buggy mess’, ‘total unreliable’, experts claim.

Experts have derided the coding from Professor Neil Ferguson, warning that it is a “buggy mess that looks more like a bowl of angel hair pasta than a finely tuned piece of programming.”

“In our commercial reality, we would fire anyone for developing code like this and any business that relied on it to produce software for sale would likely go bust,” David Richards, co-founder of British data technology company WANdisco, told the Daily Telegraph.

The original article is at The London Telegraph, but like most of the Telegraph these days everything but the first few paragraphs are behind a pay wall. Neil Ferguson’s Imperial model could be the most devastating software mistake of all time.

One thought on “Bad Models Yield Bad Predictions

  1. Liberals know that once they say something or print it, it becomes a “fact.” The most devastating part of the current responses by government and half witted citizens is that they are still basing every action on that FALSE number. The second worst part is that Ferguson has a documented history of failing miserably with his projections for epidemics/pandemics. Given that documented history, you’d think either (A) nobody should ever use him a gain as a source or (B) people would double check his numbers. FAIL on both parts

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