97.8% of Mass Public Shootings Happen in Gun-free Zones

This study has been updated. It covers 1950, through data available as of May 24th of this year. UPDATED: Mass Public Shootings keep occurring in Gun-Free Zones: 97.8% of attacks since 1950

You should just go look at the images. You should also read the article, but I know it most will categorize it as TLDR. But you should read it. But here’s something that the Left will explode over.

The official FBI definition of mass public shootings excludes “shootings that resulted from gang or drug violence” or that occurred in the commission of another crime such as robbery. The reason for this is pretty obvious: the causes and solutions for gang shootings over drug turf are dramatically different than the types of mass public shootings that we see at schools and malls where the point of the attack is to kill as many people as possible.

But it is the official FBI definition.

The Hat tip goes to The Price of Liberty, and Nathan Barton’s Things to do to keep from getting shot. You should go read that too. (It’s a baker’s dozen of things, most of which are easy to do. And it is a good list!)


Longer Sentences Under Get-tough Gun Law? Not in Chicago!

JusticeIf you make something less-expensive, you will see more of it. Number of longer sentences in Cook County under new get-tough gun law? Zero | Chicago Sun-Times

The aim of the law was simple: Repeat gun offenders in Illinois would face tougher sentences.

But a Chicago Sun-Times review of sentences in Cook County since that new law took effect in January has found that no one is actually being hit with those stiffer sentences.

The so-called Criminal Justice System in Cook County/Chicago is not interested in stopping gun crime. (Well, the cops are interested, but they have been abandoned by just about everyone else in City/County government.) Hat tip to Second City Cop.

Public Schools and Sexual Assault

This is about Chicago, but do you think any of the other large districts are that much better? Betrayed: Chicago schools fail to protect students from sexual abuse — Chicago Tribune

They didn’t do proper background checks. When they fired people for cause, they didn’t bother to pass that information along to the next school.

Ineffective background checks exposed students to educators with criminal convictions and arrests for sex crimes against children. And CPS failed to disclose to other districts that past employees had resigned after investigators found credible evidence of abuse and harassment.

From rapes to groping to come-ons, the article details the failings of CPD. Though some of the abusers are in jail

And while there is enough incompetence to go around, in some cases the system worked to protect itself at the expense of the victims. (Color me shocked.)

The student-protection failures started in schoolhouses but include the CPS central office and the district’s Law Department, which kept the results of its investigations secret and even sought to undermine the athlete raped at Simeon when they fought her civil lawsuit.

The child-protection failures also extend to state government. Weaknesses in Illinois law help protect predators, and the State Board of Education sometimes takes years to discipline disgraced educators.

They also claim that the fact that the federal .gov is not collecting stats is a problem. Because apparently the Chicago Tribune thinks that the .gov should spend more money that it doesn’t have.

Seems Chicago PD (and the Mayor) Got Caught Trying to Bury a Major Crime Story

Because it is all about managing the numbers. CPD scrambles to explain why parents of injured suburban man ignored

They didn’t want to take a police report, because that would make it official. (This is why HeyJackass! doesn’t rely only on the “official” Chicago PD numbers.)

The Chicago Police Department is scrambling to explain why the parents of a 21-year-old suburban man – who suffered a serious head injury after a Gold Coast attack by a mob of teenagers – were ignored for days when they tried to file a police report.

Local Ald. Brian Hopkins (2nd) said Friday the young man, whose family wishes to remain anonymous, is in the intensive care unit at Northwestern Memorial Hospital six days after the Saturday evening incident.

Second City Cop gets the hat tip. Look Who Woke Up is a critique of a Sun Times Reporter, and what the Mayor’s office seems to want to do downtown. Which is have the media ignore anything that would make the city look bad.

Fran stirred from her slumber and noticed that an alderman was paying attention to alternative blogs who weren’t involved in the Rahm-bargo of actual news happening downtown:

Not the first time Chicago (and the PD) have been accused of cooking the books where the number of crimes are involved.

Crime in the US is Still Near Historic Lows

Sunday’s post on crime and gun control in Mexico, and the accompanying data from the US, reminded me that I have not looked at the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report in some time.

This won’t be an in-depth dive into the data, but just a quick look at some key data. Specifically, a look at Murder and Non-negligent manslaughter from 1980 to 2016. (2016 is the last year for which final data is available.) Click on the graph for a large version.

The graph was created quickly by pulling the data for 1980 through 1996 from the 1999 UCR on Murder and Non-negligent Manslaughter, and appending the same data for 1997 through 2016 from the final data report on 2016. Although the upturn that started in 2014/2015 is clear, the overall trend has been to cut the rate almost in half since 1980.

The late 1980s and early 1990s saw both the “tough on crime” laws hit the books as well as the adoption of “Shall Issue” concealed carry laws – usually pegged to 1987 when Florida switched from a “May Issue” law to “Shall Issue.” Again, click the image of the US map for a better view of the timeline.

Correlation does not equal causation in every case, but More Guns, Less Crime does show that Concealed Carry had some impact on the crime rate.

When people talk about revoking mandatory minimum sentences (and some of them do need to change), they should remember why those laws were enacted, and overall what the resulting change in the crime was between 1980 and 2014.

I leave you to remember the events and the accompanying policy changes from 2014 that could have impacted the 35 years of improvement in such a negative way. And while I don’t show it here, other types of violent crime also showed a remarkable decrease from the 1980s to the present day.

So How Is All That Lovely Gun Control Working in Mexico?

The short answer – It isn’t. Mexico’s murder rate heads for a new record – A tropical crime wave

This story focuses on one area of Mexico, but as you can see in the graph, there is also data on Mexico’s national average murder rate.

IN APASEO EL GRANDE, a town in the central Mexican state of Guanajuato, the bodies are stacking up. In February gangsters killed a local politician. The remains of another victim were found in four bags scattered across town. Police made a similar discovery in April. In the first three months of this year the municipality of 85,000 people had 43 murders, up from 20 in all of 2016. That is about the same as London, a city 100 times larger and currently panicking about its high murder rate.

US National Murder Rate per 100,000 residentsThe story linked above doesn’t have the data behind that graph – or not that I can see. Newsweek put the National Murder rate for Mexico (as provided by the UN) at 16.4 murders per 100,000 residents in May of 2017. That seems a bit low, by the graph, but may be the number for the 2016 calendar year.

By comparison, the 2016 numbers for the US (The last year for which final totals are available) put the murder* rate at 5.3 per 100,000 residents. At it’s worst, in 1997, by this table, it was 6.8 murders per 100,000 residents. (The chart is based on the numbers provided in that FBI UCR report.) You can click on either graph to get a larger version.

And while that number – 5.3 per 100,000 residents – looks bad, it is about half the rate in 1980, when the murder rate was 10.2 per 100,000 residents. Even with the crime rate moving up in the past few years (Thank you Obama) the rates are still at, or near, historic lows.

* The official statistic in the FBI Uniform Crime Report is “Murder and Non-negligent Manslaughter Rate,” but that is a bit long for everyday use.

Chicago’s April Homicide Count Not Helped By the Weather

HeyJackass! has the April Wrap-up | Chicago Murder, Crime & Mayhem

A very chilly March gave way to the 4th coldest April on record. Surprisingly enough, this resulted in a bit less lead meeting flesh, but the homicide tally still managed to average out with the assistance of six fatal stabbings.

April’s Homicide count matched 2016 – the WORST year in Chicago for a long time. Doesn’t hold out much hope for the rest of the year.

April 2018: 40 killed, 183 wounded