Not that people will prepare. Being prepared for a disaster is apparently “uncomfortable.” Or something. We Can Outsmart Disaster: The HayWired scenario.
So what would happen if a major earthquake hit the Hayward Fault, in the San Francisco Bay? That is the question this scenario was designed to answer, and to communicate.
The HayWired scenario depicts a scientifically realistic earthquake sequence, and its cascading impacts, that all starts with a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The scenario emphasizes understanding impacts from modern society’s lifeline interdependencies and reliance on the Internet.
The .gov tries to understand what would happen if the big one ever hit in the San Francisco Bay Area. But it is only ever as good as what people will do for themselves and people resist preparing. Because to think about what bad things might happen is uncomfortable.
The Hayward fault runs through some of the more populated portions of the SF Bay Area. If a major earthquake hits (when a major quake hits?) it will be a nightmare. 5 million people could be impacted. Water could be cut to more than 2 million people. (Bets on whether or not those 2 million people have ANY water supply on hand?)
Lack of water means lack of sanitation. Lack of sanitation means problems like cholera and dysentery. And death by dehydration.
The USGS produced a movie about the HayWired study. You can find that video (less than 6 minutes) at this link.
There is also a site dedicated to how to prepare in the face of this certainty. Outsmart Disaster. A major quake occurs on this fault every 100 to 220 years. The last quake was 150 years ago. Not that people will prepare, because it is someone else’s responsibility to take care of me. Or something.
Disruption is immense. As many as 22,000 people could be trapped in elevators.
More people will be trapped in collapsed buildings. Fires, compounded by lack of water will be everywhere.
So do you think people will take heed of this? Probably not.
There are documents on Engineering Implications, and general service disruptions.
The service disruptions are of most interest to this post. Lifeline Infrastructure and Collocation Exposure to the HayWired Earthquake Scenario—A Summary of Hazards and Potential Service Disruptions.
BART stations and train yards will take longer (a few years) than highway bridges (as long as 10 months) to restore in the most heavily impacted areas
Three airports, a seaport, an oil refinery and a water treatment plant are at risk due to liquefaction. Oil and gas pipelines and communications cables are at risk.
Restoring water supply to all areas could take 6 months. How would you survive without city water for months on end? Could you?