Potential for Earthquakes in the SF Bay Area Should Not Be a Surprise to Anyone

The Hayward Fault, in the eastern part of the San Francisco Bay (Running through Berkley and Fremont) has a major earthquake every 100 to 220 years. It has been 150 years since the last one. The Haywired scenario, OR OutsmartDisaster.com.

When the federal government is telling you that you should be prepared for a disaster, you might want to listen. The video below is from the United State Geologic Survey (in part). FEMA will tell you that you are going to be on your own for AT LEAST 3 days. In a situation like this – where bridges may be destroyed – it could be longer. (AT LEAST not Maximum).

But I doubt that 3 percent of the people in the San Francisco Bay Area have any kinds of preparations or plans. Prepping is too “right wing” or something. So like when Super Storm Sandy hit New York, they will be shocked to find they can’t use their smart phone to buy a coffee, because the internet is broken.

Hat tip to Blue Collar Prepping.

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Stop The Bleed

There seems to be a concerted effort to teach people basic trauma first aid. Blue Collar Prepping: Stop the Bleed

Details at the link including a resource to find local classes. There are several offered near me (at local hospitals and a few fire stations) that are free. I suppose I will sign up.

The top cause of preventable death in trauma is bleeding. 20% of people who have died from traumatic injuries could have survived with quick bleeding control.

It has been a very long time since I had a first aid class, though I do carry a fairly extensive kit in my vehicle. I think anyone who spends time a range should be prepared for accidents. They do happen. Or is that negligent discharges?

Nuclear North Korea. Missile Warnings. Random Thoughts.

“Those who don’t know history are destined to repeat it.” Edmund Burke, (1729-1797)

Bill Clinton’s administration signed a “deal” with North Korea that was supposed to ensure they didn’t get nuclear weapons. (How’s that working out?) The political class loves deals. They love to talk. Because ultimately, it means they don’t have to deal with the issues, but can kick them down the road. This is true of local politics (look at Chicago’s pension crisis as an example) as it is in geopolitics.

The video below is of Clinton. He is so sure that this deal will ensure “peace for our time.” He didn’t say that, exactly. I don’t think any politician will utter those exact words since the travesty of the Munich Agreement, when Neville Chamberlain told the Brits to “go home, and sleep quietly in your beds.” That was right before the Germans kicked off World War II. They didn’t get peace in their time. We didn’t get a nuclear-free North Korea. (And I doubt we will see a nuclear-free Iran, but that is story for another day.)

On the subject of nuclear weapons. Americans never learned the lesson of the Cold War. The US government’s position that any preparation in the face of nuclear war was pointless. Hollywood was ready to lend a hand with that myth. (Actually, I think they just wanted to spend the money in other ways.) Russia didn’t hold that idea. They had (have) substantial shelters – at least near Moscow. And the Swiss have fallout shelters for their entire population. I believe it was written into their building code sometime during the Cold War. (It isn’t tough to build fallout shelters, and not impossible to build blast shelters. Though you do need time.) The Swiss even considered relaxing the requirement for shelters (2005), but ultimately decided it was worth the cost to be prepared for war or terrorism.

In terms of being prepared. It is important – even if you don’t have a prebuilt shelter – to know what to do. The BBC, of all places, has a reasonable article on the topic. How to survive a missile attack: What’s the official advice?

Secondly, don’t try to run. You’re safer inside the closest, most protective building – below ground if possible, somewhere like a concrete basement.

The goal should be to put the maximum space between yourself and potential nuclear fallout.

Not “distance.” Matter. Concrete and earth. Books. Anything. And take some food, and water. While radiation can travel through stuff, fallout is in the form of dust. Breathing it in, or getting it in your eyes, or a cut is bad. I won’t give you info on shelters, because that info is easy enough to find with your favorite search engine. (I hope that’s not Google, but hey…)

OK, I get that things are bad in Puerto Rico. But why are you running low on diesel after 5 days?

There are million stories on what the storms did to Puerto Rico. But this one item caught my eye. ‘This Is Chaos’: Day 5 in Storm-Ravaged, Blacked-Out Puerto Rico – Bloomberg

A nursing home in San Juan made desperate pleas for diesel as its power generator ran low.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), in the form of Ready.gov, tells EVERYONE in the US to be ready for AT LEAST 3 days on your own. Now I know, 5 days is more than 3 days, but if you live near the path of almost every hurricane every year, then MAYBE you should plan for a lot more than 3 days. Like Weeks maybe.

Folks the federal.gov has PROVEN – under both Republican and Democratic administrations – that they CANNOT save you from all circumstances. You need to do some things for yourself.

Now I actually have a lot more sympathy for the folks in Puerto Rico than say those in Houston. The folks in Houston – 80% of them or more – could have gotten in the cars and driven away on Tuesday before that storm hit the Texas coast. But the folks on Puerto Rico didn’t really have that option. (Not to mention that if the able bodied got out of the way of the Hurricane Harvey, it would have been easier to rescue those who couldn’t rescue themselves. But the elected to stay and became part of the problem.)

But back to the main point. Government can’t – and doesn’t know how – to do everything. It will be days before government – or the Cajun Navy – can get to you. What are you going to do in the meantime? What hazards are you susceptible to? Earthquakes? Mudslides? Hurricanes? Toxic waste spills? How long are you prepared to take care of yourself? (Again the .gov says AT LEAST 3 days. They also provide some documentation.)

Is It Just Me, Or Does the Media Sound Like They Want Jose to Hit the East Coast?

Tropical Storm Watches are in place for parts of the east coast, as of 11:00 PM. A Watch means that Tropical Storm Conditions are POSSIBLE within the next 48 hours. Possible, but not guaranteed.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 71.6 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday night. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Monday, and pass well east of the Delmarva peninsula Monday night and Tuesday.

2017 storm 12 (That location puts the center of the storm about 305 miles SE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.)

The storm track at right is from Tropical Tidbits. Click on it for a larger view.

Tropical storm pass “well east” of the East Coast can still drop a lot of rain. 3 to 5 inches wouldn’t seem like a lot to the folks in Houston, but I’m sure it can cause havoc on Long Island.

But everywhere I look the media is drumming up fear for the east coast. I guess that is how they sell clicks.

So I guess the real question, is everyone on Long Island ready for the worst? Is anyone? Somehow I doubt it. And they should be prepared, because the forecasters can’t predict the weather…

So Are People Ready to Prepare in Advance of a Disaster?

Irma

NHC Forecast for Sept. 8, 2017 at 2AM EDT

The cynic in me says, “Probably not.”

As I mentioned during the aftermath of Harvey, while the good people of Houston and environs were being rescued by the Cajun Navy, and shelters were running short on food about how both FEMA and the Red Cross were overwhelmed after a disaster. This isn’t new. They were overwhelmed after Andrew 25 years ago, and they were overwhelmed after Katrina.

I also mentioned that FEMA recommends you be prepared with AT LEAST 72 hours of food and water, medicines and anything else you need. (They even provide a website that tells you what to put in your disaster kit.)

It is probably too late for the people in South Florida to do much that they haven’t already done. But folks in northern Florida, or Georgia have some time to get ready. As do the people in both North and South Carolina.

Did anyone learn the lessons of Harvey? (Or Katrina? Or Andrew?)

As I write this, at 2 AM on Friday, Hurricane Irma is 535 miles ESE of Miami. Irma is moving WNW at 16 MPH, but is expected to slow some. Click the image above for a larger view of the forecast track.