When a major hurricane hits land, one of the first things (usually) to fail is the phone system, cellular and legacy. So the preparations include amateur radio. ARES Teams in Three West Central Florida Section Counties Ready to Support Shelters. Though amazingly that didn’t happen in Houston.
Amateur Radio Emergency Service (ARES) teams have been requested to provide communication support at evacuation shelters in Highlands, Hillsborough, and Polk counties.
Additional communications equipment has been staged to those west Florida areas in case the communications systems really fails (Hamaid.com).
The National Hurricane Center (NHC), has issued a hurricane watch for the Florida peninsula from Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach, including the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay. A storm surge watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach, including the Florida Keys
I can’t find the spaghetti charts on NHC site, but the South Florida Water Management District, or SFWMD (pronounced “Swift Mud”) does have them on their site. (Click the image for a larger view, as always.)
This shows all of the individual model predictions. Somewhere, you can find what exactly each model is, and all the math behind it. But the NHC seems have moved that page, and I haven’t found it again. (When I lived in Florida, hurricanes were an especially fascinating topic. They still are, but with a little less urgency – for me anyway.) When they all line up – as they do in this case, you can be reasonably certain of a path. The projection published by the NHC is an amalgamation of these models.
But if you think they can predict the weather, you should read the story of Windjammer Cruises’ schooner Fantome. As it says, anything can happen and anything did happen. It wasn’t according to the predictions.
There is a mandatory evacuation order for the Florida Keys, which of course some people are ignoring. But the hospitals are closing and emergency services are going off-line, so anyone who stays, is really on their own. More than most Americans are willing to contemplate. (You can’t call 911, because no one is there.) I would have left yesterday, but then I wouldn’t be living in the Keys.
If I lived in the coastal areas of Georgia or South Carolina I would be getting ready to bug out. And maybe North Carolina as well. (If you’re ready, you can leave at a moments notice. If you’re not ready…)