Be Glad You’re Not In the Carolinas

And if you are in either North or South Carolina, I hope you are far from the coast. .

Click to enlarge the image. Hurricane Florence looks more organized on radar than it does via satellite. Though the maximum sustained winds are down to 105 mph, and minimum pressure is holding steady at 955 millibars. Wind and rain are going to be nuts for a couple of days.

If the forward speed holds, it should make landfall in the early morning.

If you are still near the coast… What were you thinking?

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An Interesting View of the Atlantic (and the storms)

Click the image below for a larger view.

I know most of you don’t obsess over hurricanes as much as I do. (Aside from those of you in Florida, that is.)

This is an interesting view of the Caribbean and a good portion of the Atlantic from GOES 16. Florence looks to be about the size of Georgia. (More below the image.)

I like how you can see the blue of the water in the Bahamas, and the cities come to life as the nightfall terminator passes and cities light up.

Florence is the circulation in the upper left-hand corner. The circulation in the upper right, which is clearly disintegrating is what is left of Hurricane Helene tropical storm Joyce. And that in the lower right corner is Tropical Storm Isaac. (It was downgraded from Hurricane Isaac a day or 2 ago.)

Midweek Link Roundup

Mid-week/post 9-11 links from The Other McCain: Late Night With In The Mailbox: 09.10.18. Which starts off with…

OVER THE TRANSOM
EBL: Meet America’s Preeminent Right-Wing Guerrilla Street Artist
Twitchy: LGBT Student Group Argues GULAG Was Good, Anti-Trans Bigots Literally Kill & Must Be Re-Educated
Louder With Crowder: Mike Rowe Ignores Kaepernick, Shares Story Of Real Sacrifice

More on Hurricane Florence

As of 11 PM EDT. Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 51.

LOCATION…28.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 355 MI…570 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 670 MI…1075 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…946 MB…27.93 INCHES

People often focus on the wind speed. And wind speed of 140 MPH can do an awful lot of damage, but it is quite often the flooding that does more destruction. The map in the upper right (click to enlarge, as always) shows expected rainfall amounts. The dark purple is 20 inches, light purple is 15 to 20 inches. This is on top of 6ft to 12 ft (depending on the tides and location) of storm surge along the coast and up the rivers. I would not be sticking around for that.

The South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD or “Swift-Mud”) is about the only place I can find that publishes the individual storm projections. The current set for Florence is at this link.

GOES Floaters have the close-in view of the storms. The page for Florence is at this link. (The long-wave infrared images and loops are best at night, maybe just best.) This storm-specific link will probably break once the storm is archived.

The Main NOAA satellite page has full ocean views. For this storm choose a Caribbean view. The IR view is at this link.

Mike’s Weather Page is a good place to start.

Florence Is a Category 4 Hurricane

And further strengthening is anticipated. Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 46.

The image on the right is a visible spectrum loop of the storm ending at 21:15 UTC. (Source can be found at this link.) I usually like the infrared images, but in this case, you can see a nicely formed (if that’s the correct adjective) eye wall. If I were on the Eastern Seaboard, I would be getting the hell out of there.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased near 140 mph (220 km/h) with
higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further strengthening is anticipated,
and Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major
hurricane through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

Winds on the coast and inland flooding. I haven’t seen any rainfall forecasts yet, but then I haven’t been looking. But I did hear earlyier that the storm is expected to basically park itself, once it achieves landfall. That will be sure to result in flooding, if it happens that way. (They can’t predict the weather.)

Hurricane Florence: You Should Be Prepared

If you live in hurricane country, you should have been prepared in March, but since probably less than 10% thought about it, now would be a good time. Hurricane FLORENCE: Public Advisory Number 43

This is looking like a major hurricane, and there are days for it to strengthen.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is forecast to rapidly strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday night, and is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday.

The image is from GOES East satellite imagery tropical storm floaters. It is from 10 Sep 2018 at 2:30 UTC. It is a collection of long-wave infrared images given the Rainbow Image Enhancement. (It is one of the better views at night, when visual spectrum isn’t such a good choice.) Click to enlarge.

People won’t prepare. They won’t evacuate when told to do so. They will remember the last tropical storm, or category 1 hurricane and think it wasn’t that bad. It’s what people do. And maybe this storm will swing north out into the Atlantic. (They can’t predict the weather, not between now and Friday.) Or maybe it will be Helene that strikes the Eastern Seaboard as a major hurricane. Or maybe none of them. But it isn’t if, it’s when the next storm will hit. Which is why you should be prepared.