I was talking with a friend about the current state of the stock market. And in particular, the insanity in late December over the sell-off. See the image for an overview. (Clicking on it will enlarge the view, as always.) More on the image in a bit.
But of course the Left and the media (but I repeat myself) were HOPING for a stock market collapse. Because they were hoping that it would help them take out Trump.
Now we may be at the start of a Bear Market, or we may be near the end of a correction. But I guarantee that no one in the media knows what is coming next. If they could predict the future, they would have make a fortune already and be sitting on a beach somewhere. But let’s take a look at the December insanity.
- The Washington Post: Markets stage one of worst Christmas Eves ever, closing down more than 600 points as Trump blames Fed for stock losses in a tweet
- USA Today: Dow slide deepens as shadow of bear market hovers over battered stock market
- The Kansas City Star (in the most blatant attempt to claim clairvoyance): Will U.S. face a recession in 2019? Here’s what forecasters say, with a look to 2020
- The New York Times: Are You Ready for the Financial Crisis of 2019? (Because it is a done deal!)
I could make that list much longer of course, but you get the point.
One of the other sources I reviewed for that list (I forget which) said something like “It’s been a party for 5 years on the stock market.” Which is pretty much true, and it is why when November’s downturn hit, (Now is a good time to view that image) everyone who manages their own portfolio, and every financial planner and fund manager started looking at the question, “Are there any stocks where I want to take my profits?” and in mid-to-late December the question became “Is there anywhere I want to take a loss for tax purposes?” You know (or maybe you don’t), capital gains taxes also talk about capital losses.
It’s almost as if no one working in the media has ever paid attention to the stock market. Or the business cycle. Or taxes. Or anything. There is an entire investment strategy around looking for stocks that are ripe for tax sales, and then buying them between Christmas and the first week in January. Because if they were sold based on taxes, they will likely rebound. (Make sure they weren’t sold for fundamental reasons, or you could be part of the Dead Cat Bounce.)
But of course 99.9 percent of the coverage the stock market in December and January, wasn’t about informing the investing public, it was about destroying Trump, because even by December the “Russia! Russia! Russia!” attacks weren’t looking so good.
As I said at the start, I don’t know if this is the start of a bear market, or the end of a correction. When I look at things like housing sales and freight numbers, things look good to me, but I can’t predict the future. The point is, neither can any of the talking heads on the 24 hour news cycle.