Lies, Damn Lies, and COVID-19 Statistics

The case of the disappearing antigens… A tale of two tests: Vermont town left puzzled by positive, then negative, COVID-19 results. Or – the only place I could actually view the article… The Wayback Machine’s copy.

So a small community in Vermont had 65 people test positive via the “new and improved” antigen test. But in Vermont that isn’t enough…

But in Vermont, positive antigen tests — a relatively new way of detecting an active COVID infection — require confirmation by another test: a polymerase chain reaction, or PCR, test, the gold-standard used by the government, hospitals, and professional sports teams. Of the 65 people who’d received those positive antigen tests, 48 would ultimately test negative via PCR. Liebig was one of them.
A community on edge was now a community confused.

Say that again. Out 65 people who tested positive with the antigen test, 48 tested negative with the better test. That is a 73.8 percent false positive rate. Only 26.2 percent of the people the first test said had the disease, actually seem to have had the disease.

If you read the fine print, the antigen test is still experimental, approved by the FDA under “emergency” measures for the pandemic

And not all states are as fastidious as Vermont. Rhode Island and Massachusetts accept the antigen test and publish the results.

No one is saying that people are lying, though the manufacturer of the test and equipment is in ass-covering mode. And I’m left with the feeling that people just want the data to be as “bad” as possible.

Self-defense is Legal in Vermont

JusticeI guess this is baffling to the folks in San Francisco. Why else would the cover it? Prosecutor says shooting at Royalton home was self-defense.

A non-fatal shooting at a Royalton home was in self-defense and no charges will be filed against the man who fired the shot, police said Tuesday, announcing the decision by the office of the Windsor County State’s Attorney.

The guy had a gun. The homeowner fired his own gun, hitting the guy in the leg.

Self-defense is a human-right.

Bacon on the Run

Of course the .gov is going to fine the farmer. Vermont pig escape: 250 pigs escaped a farm, but most lured back by hot dog buns.

Jeffries said he believes the fence enclosure was damaged by vandalism on the night of Aug. 11, allowing about 50 adult pigs and 200 piglets to escape. He thinks it was the work of a former employee and said he reported it to the police. The farm was also robbed recently of thousands of dollars in tools, he said.

But that isn’t good enough for the civic leaders, they want to fine this guy more than $80,000. Because they need to teach everyone a lesson. That if you really hate your ex-employer, you can probably find a way to bankrupt them with the help of City Hall.

An Environmental Disaster Caused By Lack of Hunters

Somewhere a Democrat’s head is exploding. Up to Here in Deer: As Fewer Vermonters Hunt, the Growing Herd Is Becoming a Problem.

Chittenden County forester Ethan Tapper surveyed the scene with dismay. The woodland was “a little ecological disaster zone,” he declared.

White-tailed deer had ravaged the area, Tapper said as he crouched to examine a cluster of three-inch-high ash saplings in a thicket of ferns. Hungry deer had munched them down to the ground repeatedly, he said. The acres of maple and ash seedlings all around him had been decimated.

As a result, no understory of trees is growing to replace the overstory of 80-year-old maples. The forest is open to an invasion of buckthorn, honeysuckle and other nuisance species.

Go read the whole thing. But to the point, forward the Vermont article to anyone who questions why people should hunt.

Should You Bet Your Safety On Being Lucky?

That’s what it comes down to, sometimes, when calling 911. Police: Quick 911 response requires some luck

If a town has its own police force, that is one thing, but if they contract with the sheriff’s office, you might have to wait a while, and if town can’t afford 24 hr support, you might have to wait on the State Police.

Maj. Rick Hopkins, commander of the Field Force Division of Vermont State Police, said unlike a municipal police department, troopers have a lot of ground to cover. Hopkins said “sometimes it’s just luck of the draw” when it comes to getting a quick response time from State Police.

Even if you can call 911 BEFORE bad things happen (no guarantee there), you are going to wait some number of minutes. If you are in a small town, you are going to wait longer, and if your town relies on state troopers it may be quite some time before a cop arrives.

Calling 911 is a fine thing to do. They can dispatch all kinds of help to you. But that help won’t be there in an instant. What are you going to do while you wait?